The dollar stands near the highs for the year as we enter what will be a shortened trading week. It’s the euro, yen and also Swiss franc that have suffered in recent trading sessions, although the single currency has managed a modest recovery in the Asian trading session. Key events are getting thin on the ground going into the holiday period. The main focus will be with final GDP data in the UK, US and various European countries, together with housing data in the US, released both today and tomorrow. None are likely to drastically alter the tone to currencies.
The past 3 weeks have been pretty turbulent for markets, mostly owing to events in Russia, together with the falling oil price and also the volatility that this has caused in other markets, including FX and stocks. We have seen some recovery in oil back above the $60 level on Brent, which is giving some relief from recent pressures. This has also allowed the yen to shed some more of its recent risk aversion bid, currently trading just below the 120 level on USDJPY. We see the yen as one of the weakest major currencies in 2015, but it’s going to be a fairly rough ride along the way. See our blog for more outlooks for the year ahead.