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The FxPro Analyst Team

German PMI, BOE Rate Decision and US Jobless Claims – March 22, 2018

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At 08:30 GMT, German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) is expected to come in at 59.8 from 60.6 previously. Markit Services PMI (Mar) is expected at 55.0 v 55.3 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Mar) is expected to be 57.0 from 57.6 prior. The expectation is for a slip in these data points, suggesting that the December reading was a short-term high. For Manufacturing, it was the highest since before the financial crisis and for Services, it was the highest since June 2011. EUR traders will be closely following this data release.

At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) is expected to come in at 58.1 from 58.6 previously. Markit Services PMI (Mar) is expected at 56.0 v 56.2 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Mar) is expected to be 56.7 from 57.1 prior. This data is also expected to soften from highs in December. EUR crosses may see a spike in volatility should the actual released data differ from the expected consensus.

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At 09:30 GMT, UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) is expected to be 1.3% from 1.6% previously. Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) is expected at 0.4% against a prior 0.1%. Retail Sales Ex-Fuel (YoY) (Feb) is expected to be 1.2% from 1.5% previously. Retail Sales Ex-Fuel (MoM) (Feb) is expected at 0.4% against a prior 0.1%. This data series will be the last available to the BOE before they decide on monetary policy ahead of their 12:00 GMT announcements. It is a volatile data set but it does give a view on consumer spending. GBP crosses may experience an increase in volatility following this data release.

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At 12:00 GMT, the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision is expected to be left unchanged at 0.5%. The BOE Minutes, BOE Quarterly Inflation Report and the Monetary Policy Statement will also be released at the same time. BOE Asset Purchase Facility is expected to come in unchanged at £435B. While no change in rate is expected, the tone and language used will be examined for hints that the Bank is gearing up to increase rates in future. GBP crosses may see a spike in volatility after this data is released.

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At 12:30 GMT, US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 16) is expected to be 225K from 226K previously. Continuing Jobless Claims (Mar 9) is expected to be 1.890M from 1.879M previously. Jobless Claims data has been in a downtrend since the high after the financial crisis. It is expected to fall further today, as job creation is sustained and more individuals resume work. Continuing Jobless claims is expected to tick up a little. USD crosses could be moved by this data.

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At 13:00 GMT, US House Price Index (MoM) (Jan) is expected at 0.5% v 0.3% previously. This data is expected to tick up a little after falling over the last few months in what has become a seasonal move. Statistically, this reading is one of the worst for House prices in the US as it represents the January data. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data.

At 13:45 GMT, US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) is expected to come in at 55.5 from 55.3 previously. Markit Services PMI (Mar) is expected at 55.8 v 55.9 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Mar) is expected to be 55.7 from 55.8 prior. Manufacturing is expected to maintain its strong improvement since a low in May 2016. Services data is expected to soften a little. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data.

At 17:00 GMT, the BOE’s Ramsden is due to deliver closing remarks at the International FinTech Conference, in London. Comments may cause moves in GBP pairs.

At 18:45 GMT, the BOC’s Wilkins is due to speak at the Rotman School of Management, in Toronto. Comments may cause moves in CAD crosses.