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The FxPro Analyst Team

Europe Awaits Consumer Price Data

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At 08:30 GMT, UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) will be released and is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) is expected at 2.5% from 2.4% prior. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar) is expected at 0.3% from 0.4% prior. Producer Price Index – Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Mar) is expected at 0.2% from 0.0% previously. Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Mar) is expected at 2.3% from 2.6% previously. Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a. (Mar) is expected at 0.3% from -1.1% previously. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a. (Mar) is expected at 4.1% from 3.4% previously. Retail Price Index (MoM) (Mar) is expected at 0.3% against 0.8% previously. Retail Price Index (YoY) (Mar) is expected to be unchanged at 3.6%. These data points are expected to show CPI holding steady. The yearly figure has been above the Bank of England’s 2% target since March of 2017, due to the change in the value of the pound after Brexit. However, the BOE says that inflation is likely to move back to 2% in 2018. Easter was early this year and that may affect some of the figures, particularly the airfare numbers. Producer Prices are expected to increase in March after the drop in February. GBP crosses may be moved by the data released at this time.

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At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Mar) will be released and is expected to be unchanged at 1%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar) is expected to be 1.0% from 0.2% previously. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) is expected to be unchanged at 1.4%. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Mar) is expected at 1.4% from 0.4% prior. Inflation moved up to 2.0% late in 2016 and early in 2017, the highest levels in five years, but has stabilized around 1.3% since June (YoY). The ECB is looking for inflation to “approach 2%”. CPI data is expected to show an increase in the monthly figures. EUR pairs may see volatility pick up due to this data.

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At 12:30 GMT, FOMC Member William Dudley is due to speak at a scheduled event. Any comments could affect USD pairs.

At 14:00 GMT, Bank of Canada Rate Statement will be made public and the Monetary Policy Report and the Interest Rate Decision will also be released. The Interest Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.25% but the BOC is likely to signal a reduction in GDP projections, as growth fell short of the mark in Q4 and Q1. This may delay any rate hikes past May and into July.

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At 15:15 GMT, the Bank of Canada Press Conference based on the decisions made earlier at 14:00 GMT.

At 18:00 GMT, US Fed’s Beige Book data will be released. USD crosses may be impacted.

At 19:15 GMT, FOMC Member William Dudley is due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the City University of New York’s Lehman College. Any comments may affect USD pairs.

At 20:15 GMT, Fed Member Quarles is due to speak at the Bretton Woods Committee Annual Meeting, in Washington DC. USD may be impacted by any comments made.

At 22:45 GMT, New Zealand Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) is expected to come in at 0.5% against a previous 0.1%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q1) is expected to come in at 1.1% against a previous 1.6%. The forecasted numbers for this release are mixed, with the quarterly figure expected to increase but the yearly figure set to drop. This data is lagging quite a bit but is important for NZD traders to gauge the strength of the economy.

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