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The FxPro Analyst Team

US CPI data Expected to Decline in March

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At 07:00 GMT, The ECB’s Non-Monetary Policy Minutes will be released, and EUR crosses may be affected.

At 08:30 GMT, UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) is expected to be 2.9% against a previous 1.6%. Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) is expected to be 0.4% against 1.3% previously. Seasonally, there is generally a downturn in this figure, with a drop early in the New Year, usually seen in February and followed by a strong rebound in March. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Feb) is expected to be 3.3% against 2.7% previously. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb) is expected to be 0.2% against 0.1% previously. This figure had been less volatile during much of 2017, with readings staying positive but close to zero. The expectation is for a slight improvement after last month’s marginal miss. GBP pairs may move because of this data release.

At 11:00 GMT, ECB President Draghi is due to speak at the Generation Euro Students’ Award Ceremony, in Frankfurt. Audience questions are expected and comments may result in movement in EUR crosses.

At 12:30 GMT, US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) data will be released with an expected reading of 2.4% against 2.2% previously. Consumer Price Index Ex-Food & Energy (YoY) (Mar) data will be released with an expected reading of 2.1% against 1.8% previously. Consumer Price Index Ex-Food & Energy (MoM) (Mar) data will be released and is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar) data will be released with an expected reading of 0.0% against 0.2% previously. Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (Mar) data will be released with an expected reading of 256.200 against 255.751 previously. These data points will allow for an updated measure of the effect of inflation on consumers. Inflation is one of the main drivers of market sentiment in the US currently. The expectation is for an increase in consumer prices year-on-year but for the monthly reading to show a drop. The higher reading shocked the market in January but can be partly explained as an increase in demand for winter items due to the cold weather. This can be seen in the February number, which showed a correction, one which is expected to continue today. USD pairs and US assets may experience a pickup in volatility due to this data.

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At 18:00 GMT, The FOMC Minutes will be released, along with the US Monthly Budget Statement (Mar), which is expected to show a balance of $-194B against $-215B previously. The FOMC Minutes are expected to focus on rate hikes and inflation, giving traders an insight into the Fed’s thinking on the path of rates for the coming months. The trade war with China may not be mentioned in these minutes because the meeting occurred before the situation escalated last month.

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