The FxPro Analyst Team

US Non-Farm Payrolls Not Expected to Repeat February Feat


At 07:45 GMT, ECB’s Coeure is expected to make a scheduled speech. EUR pairs may see an impact from this data release.

At 12:30 GMT, US Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar) is expected at 190K v a prior 313K. This measures the change in the number of employed people in March. The Unemployment Rate (Mar) is expected at 4.0% with a prior of 4.1%. This measures the percentage of the total workforce unemployed and actively seeking employment during March. Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Mar) is expected to be 2.7% against 2.6% previously. Average Weekly Hours (Mar) is expected to be unchanged at 34.5. Labour Force Participation Rate (Mar) is expected to be 63.5% against a prior reading of 63.0%. This data can have a large impact on markets, as the tight labour market has yet to lead to an increase in earnings. This would lead to an increase in inflation, which markets have reacted negatively to recently. USD crosses could experience volatility around these data releases.


At 12:30 GMT, Canadian Unemployment Rate (Mar) is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%. Participation Rate (Mar) is also expected to be unchanged at 65.5%. Net Change in Employment (Mar) is expected to be 20.0K against a prior 15.4K. Unemployment had fallen to the lowest levels in ten years, at 5.7%, in November but ticked up slightly in December, with the large drop in the Net Change in Employment data, the largest fall since 2009. CAD pairs could see an increase in price movement from this data.


At 14:00 GMT, Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (Mar) is expected to be 60.2 against a previous 59.6. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Mar) was 58.4 previously. This data is showing robust growth, continuing one of the longest positive runs, with 20 months above 50.0. CAD crosses may be moved by this data release.

At 15:15 GMT, UK BOE Governor Carney is due to speak at the International Climate Risk Conference for Supervisors, in Amsterdam. GBP crosses may be impacted by comments made during this time.

At 17.00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts is due to be released with a headline number from last week of 798. WTI Oil can become volatile around this data release and will be in traders’ minds when trading resumes on Monday.

At 17:30 GMT, US Fed Chairman Powel is due to speak about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago. Audience questions are expected and comments may result in moves in USD crosses.

At 19:00 GMT, US Consumer Credit Change (Feb) is expected to be $15.00B against a reading of $13.91B prior. This has been moving lower since reaching a high of $28.00B in January but there are seasonal factors that lead to a drop in the New Year. USD pairs may be affected by this data.