At 08:00 GMT, Italian Unemployment (Feb) is expected to be 11.0% against the previous 11.1%. This data set seems to have stopped its decline after last month’s reading, but one data point does not make a turn. Last month’s expectations were exceeded after declining since January 2017. The recent high of 13.4% was reached in January 2015. EUR traders will be closely following this data release.
At 08:30 GMT, UK Construction PMI (Mar) will be out, with an expected headline number of 50.8 and 51.4 prior. The consensus is for a further softening from the high of 53.1 created in December. The industry is dangerously close to slipping back under 50.0 from the high of 64.6 reached in 2014. GBP pairs may see an impact from this data release.
At 9:00 GMT, Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Feb) is expected to be 8.5% against the previous 8.6%. Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Mar) is expected to be 1.1% against the previous 1.0%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) is expected to be 1.4% against the previous 1.1%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to reach a new low of 8.5%, a level not seen since April 2009. The recovery in the Euro area is still strong and growing. CPI is stabilizing around 1.2%. EUR crosses may be impacted by this data release.
At 12:15 GMT, US ADP Employment Change (Mar) is expected to be 205K against 235K previously. This data has remained above 200 for the last three months, showing that the US economy is continuing to add jobs. USD pairs may be moved by this data.
At 13:45 GMT, the US Fed’s Bullard is due to speak. Comments may result in moves in USD crosses.
At 13:45 GMT, US Markit Services PMI (Mar) is expected to be 54.3 against a previous number of 54.1. This data was in line with higher expectations last month, after declining for six months previously. This time, the data is expected to decline once again. Markit PMI Composite (Mar) is expected to be 54.1 against 54.3 previously. USD pairs may be moved by this data series.
At 14:00 GMT, US ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) is expected to be 59.0 against 59.5 previously. This is in the upper range of the data releases we have seen over the past seven years, but off the high of above 65.0 reached before the financial crisis. Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb) is expected to be 1.7% from -1.4% prior. This data can be volatile and the expectation is for a positive reading but numbers are expected to remain in the recent range of +3.0% to -3.0%. USD traders will be closely watching this data release.
At 15:00 GMT, US FOMC Member Mester is due to speak about diversity in economics at Central State University, in Ohio. Audience questions are expected and comments may result in moves in USD crosses.