feedback
The FxPro Analyst Team

European PMIs set the stage for US NFP and Earnings today

The G7 is meeting today in Canada for a second day. Any comments made by participants can result in market moves.

At 07:55 GMT, German Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) is expected to be 56.8 against the previous 56.8. This data set seems to have peaked in January at 63.3, when it exceeded the 2011 high of 62.7. The last four readings have shown a softening in the data with an expectation for this reading to fall again today. EUR traders will be closely following this data release.

At 08:00 GMT, Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1) is expected to be 1.4% against the previous 1.6%. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1) is expected to be 0.3% against the previous 0.3%. This data is more relevant given the spotlight on the Political crisis in Italy. The yearly reading is expected to show a softening in the data but the quarterly reading is expected to hold steady. EUR assets may see an increase in volatility following this data release.

It_GDP_180601

At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) is expected to be 55.5 against the previous 55.5. This data set reached its peak in January at 60.6, when it exceeded the 2011 high of 62.7. The last four readings have shown a softening in the data, indicating a slowing of the manufacturing industry is on the cards. EUR crosses can be impacted by this data release.

Ea_ManPMI_180601

At 09:30 GMT, UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) will be out with an expected headline number of 53.5 and 53.9 prior. The consensus is for a reading generally in line with other releases this morning and for a further softening from the high created in December at 58.2. Slower output growth was a factor cited in the weakening number despite stronger new order inflows, strengthening job creation and demand. GBP pairs may see prices move following this data release.

UK_ManPMI_180601

At 12:30 GMT, US Non-Farm Payrolls (May) is expected at 188K from a prior 164K. This measures the change in the number of employed people in May. The Unemployment Rate (May) is expected at 3.9% with a prior of 3.9%. This measures the percentage of the total workforce unemployed and actively seeking employment during May. Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (May) is expected to be 2.7% against 2.6% previously. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May) is expected to be 0.2% against 0.1% previously. Average Weekly Hours (May) is expected to be 34.5 against a previous 34.5. Labour Force Participation Rate (May) is expected to be 62.6% against a prior reading of 62.8%. This data can have a large impact on markets as the tight labour market has yet to show its impact with an increase in earnings. This would lead to an increase in inflation which markets have reacted negatively to recently. USD crosses could experience volatility around these data releases.

US_Payrolls_180601

At 13:30 GMT, Canadian Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) is expected to be 55.4 against the previous 55.5. This data set seems to have peaked in February at 55.9, when it matched the April 2017 number. The last four readings have shown a softening in the data with an expectation for this reading to fall again today. CAD pairs may see prices move after this data release.

At 14:00 GMT, US ISM Prices Paid (May) is due out with a consensus of 78.2 expected. The previous reading was 79.3 and this shows a slight drop in the cost of goods and services. ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) is also out at this time with an expectation for a number of 58.1 v 57.3 prior. This number is falling after reaching a high of 60.8 in February. USD crosses can be impacted by this data release following earlier US data and turbulent price action can result.

US_ManISM_180601

At 17:00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts is due to be released with a headline number from last week of 859. Oil prices fell last Friday with the announcement of a relaxing of production cuts but the increase in rig counts also added to the fall. WTI Oil can become volatile around this data release and will be in traders’ minds when trading resumes on Monday.

US_RigsCount_180601