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Devata Tseng

Technical Analysis : OPEC Meeting Fails to Lift Oil Prices Above Resistance

The three day OPEC meeting took place from Monday 26th September, in Algeria, although the Algeria Energy Minister stated that output cuts or a freeze are both possible. In fact, there are still conflicts of interest between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Iran aims to reach the pre-sanction output and regain its previous market share. It will be difficult for the two major OPEC oil producers to reach an agreement. It will be more likely that nothing concrete will be achieved in the end.

Fundamentally, the trend of oil should be bearish due to oversupply.

WTI spot has retraced since Monday 23th September after testing the major uptrend line resistance.
The major support is at 45.00.

The 4 hourly Stochastic Oscillator is still moving downwards, suggesting a continuous retracement.

The resistance level is at 46.00, followed by 46.40 and 46.70.
The support level is at 45.30, followed by 45.00 and 44.50.

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The dollar index has rebounded since 22nd September after testing the major support line at 95.00, where providing a stronger support.
It has been trading above the downside uptrend line support, the current trend remains upward.

The resistance level is at 95.40, 95.60, 95.80.
The support line is at 95.20, 95.00, 94.80.

The 4 hourly Stochastic Oscillator is around 70, be aware of a correction.

We will get a set of the US data for September today, including Service PMI, Composite PMI, and Consumer Confidence, will be released at 13:45 GMT. With better-than-expected figures, the dollar index will likely rally and test the resistance level at 95.40. With lower-than-expected figures, the dollar index will likely fall and test the support level at 95.20.

Also the Vice Chair of the Fed, Stanley Fischer, will make a speech at 15:15 GMT today. Keep an eye on the content, as it may influence the strength of the dollar.

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The trend of the Aussie remains bullish, yet the current price nears the upside major uptrend line resistance, the selling pressure at this level is heavy. The bullish momentum may be restrained at this price range.

In addition, the 4 hourly and the daily Stochastic Oscillator are both above 70, suggesting a pullback.

The resistance is at 0.7700, followed by 0.7730 and 0.7750.
The support line is at 0.7630, followed by 0.7600 and 0.7570.

Keep an eye on the US Service PMI, Composite PMI, and Consumer Confidence for September, will be released at 13:45 GMT today. It will influence the trend of AUDUSD.

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