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The FxPro Analyst Team

Aussie Strength Depends on Australian Q2 GDP

AUDUSD

The RBA rate decision was announced this morning, as unchanged at 1.5%, in line with consensus.
The Australian Current Account Balance in Q2, released this morning, was -15.50 billion, beating expectations of -19.75 billion. The positive figure helped the Aussie break the major resistance at 0.7600 and the uptrend line resistance this morning.

It is currently holding above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7625, and testing the next resistance level, the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, at 0.7656, where also the next downtrend line resistance situates. The support level is at 0.7625, followed by 0.7600 and 0.7580.

The 4 hourly Stochastic Oscillator is around 70, be aware of a pullback.

The Australian Q2 GDP (YoY and QoQ), will be released at 01:30 am GMT, on Wednesday 07th September. The Australian Q1 2016 GDP (YoY) rose slightly to 3.1%, from 3.0% in Q4 2015, marking the third straight rise since Q2 2015. The Australian Q1 2016 GDP (QoQ) rose to 1.1%, from 0.6% in Q4 2015. The market expectation is for 0.4% growth.

If the Australian Q2 GDP figures are better-than-expected, the Aussie will likely rally and break the 0.7656 resistance level. The next resistance level is at 0.7700. With a lower-than-expected reading, the Aussie will likely retrace and test the support line at 0.7625, followed by 0.7610.

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The Dollar Index (DXY)

The dollar index has formed a consolidation pattern, oscillating in the range between 95.80 and 95.60. It is trading below both 8 and 20 EMAs, suggesting selling pressure.

The resistance level is at 95.80, followed by 96.00 and 96.23.
The support level is at 95.60, followed by 95.40 and 95.00.

Keep an eye on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for August, to be released at 14:00 GMT today. With a positive reading, the dollar will likely strengthen, with lower-than-expected reading, the dollar will likely weaken.

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EURUSD

On the 4 hourly chart, EURUSD has formed a consolidation pattern since 26th August. It is currently oscillating in the range between 1.1200 resistance and the uptrend line support at 1.1147.

The resistance level is at 8-day EMA at 1.1177, followed by 1.1200 and 1.1240.
The support level is the uptrend line support at 1.1147, followed by 1.1130 and 1.1100.

Keep an eye on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for August, to be released at 14:00 GMT today. With a positive reading, EURUSD will likely weaken and test the downside uptrend line support, with lower-than-expected reading, EURUSD will likely rally and test the resistance level at 1.1177, followed by 1.1200.

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GBPUSD

GBPUSD broke the major downtrend line resistance on 1st September. It is currently oscillating in the range between 1.3350 resistance and 1.3300 support line.
The daily time frame Stochastic oscillator (KD indicator) is above 70, be aware of a retracement.

The resistance level is at 1.3350, followed by 1.3370 and 1.3400.
The support line is at 1.3300, followed by 1.3270 and 1.3250.

We will get a series of economic data out of the UK, between 08:30 to 09:00 GMT on Wednesday 07th September, including the significant Bank of England Inflation Report, Industrial Production (YoY and MoM) for July, and Manufacturing Production (YoY and MoM) for July.

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