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Forex: Sterling recovers on latest Scottish Independence poll

Sterling has found support now as the rallying cries for Scottish Independence seem to be falling on deaf ears. The latest You Gov poll (which is reputedly one of the more accurate pollsters, although they released the one last weekend that showed the Yes Campaign in the lead causing the recent spike in volatility in FX markets), showed the No Campaign back in the lead. GBPUSD has now recovered back to 1.6240 having not long ago threatened to break the 1.6000 level, so it looks like traders are now re-pricing a greater chance that come polling day next Thursday, the majority of Scots will actually end up voting to keep the status quo. Yesterday saw GBPUSD’s biggest rally for twelve weeks and candlestick watchers have been talking of a “morning star” formation created earlier in the week, which is considered a bullish signal.

Overnight the Aussie fell further against the dollar to a new five month low and at the writing sits at 0.9055. Not too far off the big figure at 0.9000 last seen in mid-March and will be a welcome sight for the RBA which has been talking down the Aussie for some time now.

Economic data is a little thin on the ground but later this morning we see Eurozone employment and industrial figures, then this afternoon from the US we see retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence. The US retail sales could be a catalyst for some movement later as it has been sluggish throughout the summer and is a figure closely watched by the Federal Reserve.

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