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Forex: Risk aversion as indices dive

Indices plunged yesterday and investors sought safe havens such as the Yen as concerns over the up and coming earnings season have put a dampener on risk assets.  One of the best examples of why investors should be concerned is the FTSE 100 which for the fourth time in 2014 alone, has failed to push on and breach its record highs above 6900.  If you go back just over one year the index has failed on eight occasions and so we seemed to have reached a glass ceiling.  The Yen was a beneficiary of this risk aversion yesterday with USDJPY heading back to the mid 101 area where it found support at 101.50 and this morning it is trading at 101.60.

GBPUSD once again remained defiant reversing losses suffered following the poor industrial and manufacturing numbers recovering to back above the 1.7100 after dipping below it yesterday and sterling is likely to remain a focus in the run up to tomorrow’s BOE rate decision despite no action being expected.

Today’s sees ECB President Mario Draghi give a keynote speech in London almost two years on from his do “whatever it takes” speech so EURUSD should be closely watched as it is a little bid this morning trading at 1.3625.  Rather like sterling the dollar continues to be unable to gain ground against these two majors and so we’ll see if Draghi plays down the euro once again today.

Later in the day, seen as the biggest risk event, we get the release of the FOMC minutes where investors will be looking for greater clues as to what point next year the Fed will be looking to raise rates.  Dollar bulls will be crossing their fingers in the hope of a more hawkish tone to the minutes.

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