Indices look to have found a floor for now but there remains a palpable concern amongst investors that the worst may still be to come. The market is aware that tapering is due to end later this month and they are also aware that that means the next move for the Federal Reserve is to hike interest rates. At a time when global growth is fast becoming a worry, the combination of the two does not sit well with investors.
With the US on holiday for Columbus Day yesterday, despite many markets remaining open, we can expect a return of volumes and volatility today. We start the plethora of inflationary data today with some of the worrisome Eurozone states releasing CPIs and the UK also where CPI is due to decline to 1.4% from 1.5%. Cable has been under pressure for some time now so anything lower than this could send GBPUSD lower for another push below the 1.6000 level. Other data to watch will be the ZEW Survey releases for Germany and the Eurozone which can often cause a reaction in EURUSD, with both expected to decline significantly these will be ones to watch carefully. As the dollar rally continues its pause for breath the next leg higher, if it comes, could be assisted by worse than expected inflation and ZEW data out today, in particular for sterling which is suffering from a rethink on rates as few believe a hike will come in 2014 and some now questioning H1 2015.