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Forex: Greece decides state or IMF

After a week of dollar weakness some tentative buyers are returning leading to some reversals of the very near term trends amongst the majors. AUDUSD has retraced from above the 0.7800 level and sits around 0.7700 this morning, GBPUSD has pulled back from 1.5000 to trade at 1.4855 and EURUSD is back from above 1.0800 to 1.0680 at the time of writing. All three majors face their own risks when it comes to a weak outlook with a central bank remaining vocal in wanting to see its currency depreciate (the Aussie), a general election that has a very uncertain outcome (sterling) and a single currency where chances of a breakup continue to rise (euro).

Of all three majors, it is the euro that remains a key focus with Greece causing ever more friction within the Eurozone. Several very large payments are due at the end of April and in May which are making people nervous about the prospect of default. Without the funds from the extended bailout agreed earlier in the year Greece needs to decide who to pay first, its own state workers and pensioners or the IMF. Today is another quiet one in respect to economic data apart from the German ZEW survey released at 10.00 UK time.

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