Cruising into month end

Since the US election result, many currencies have been one-way traffic, either up or down, rarely sideways. There are signs that we are taking a breather on some of those trends. This is most notable on the yen, where USDJPY has corrected below the 113.00 level, although we’re seeing a steadier tone in the Asia session so far. Given the extent of the move seen over the past 3 weeks, then the fact that we are reversing into month end should not be that surprising, but also offers a level of comfort that markets are not running away with themselves. This is also evident on EURGBP, which has reversed from just below the 0.85 level. Emerging market currencies have also reversed slightly, most notably the rand and Brazilian real.

Today’s data schedule is likely to be secondary to overall sentiment and flows into month end. We see further reading on US Q3 GDP at 13:30 GMT, together with consumer and business confidence data in the Eurozone at 10:00 GMT. We’re also keeping a close eye on oil as OPEC ministers meeting, but the signs are that members are not getting closer on any agreement on production cuts.