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Forex: The dominant dollar

The dollar appreciated a further 1% through the course of Thursday in the wake of the Fed meeting result seen Wednesday evening. We saw some pull-back into the NY close and again through the Asia session, but the dollar remains up 2% overall vs. the level prevailing just ahead of the meeting result. Between now and the end of the month, the key question is whether there is sufficient underling momentum for this upward pressure to be continued. The initial focus for this will be USDPY and the ability to push to the 120 level. Thereafter there is the parity level on EURUSD, with a low of 1.0367 seen yesterday. Against this stronger dollar environment, gold is one-way traffic at the moment, pushing levels last seen Feb this year, holding below the 1150 level.

For today, we see final CPI data in the Eurozone (minimal impact), together with the Russian central bank decision later this morning, where rates are seen holding steady at 10%. The rouble has been trading well given the recent gains in the oil price, with USDRUB just off new lows for the year, which were recorded earlier this year at 60.48. Elsewhere, stocks look set to open steady to slightly firmer on the back of the decent tone to US stocks yesterday.

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