The US employment report dominates the landscape today. We pointed out earlier in the week that the dollar’s correlation to data surprises had increased for most of the past few weeks and this is worth bearing in mind today. We’ve looked previously at the dollar reaction to the monthly jobs numbers, which can often seen the initial reaction reversed and often within the subsequent 90 minutes after the release. As always in FX, there are no guarantees, but with the market becoming more sensitive towards the prospect of a Fed rate hike, then the dollar’s greater sensitivity to data is understandable. For today’s release, the market expects the headline rate to remain steady at 5.5%, with payrolls seen rising 227k after the 223k rise seen in last month’s data.
In the early part of the European session yesterday, the euro was on fire and pushing towards the 1.14 level before pulling back. Sterling was also knocked lower by weaker than expected services PMI data. This has put the dollar on a decent footing going into the US numbers. Once again, Greece is not far from the market thinking. Greece has said that the EUR 300m payment due to the IMF today will be paid at the end of the month, bundled up with other monies owed. Apparently this is within IMF rules, but the path to a long-term deal still looks elusive given the rhetoric coming from both sides.