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Devata Tseng

Markets Await French Election Result

The second-round of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday May 7.

Per the latest IFOP (French Institute of Public Opinion) projections; Macron has 60.93% share of votes whereas Le Pen has 39.07%. Macron inherited 43% of Fillion’s, 70% of Hamon’s and 50% of Melenchon’s voters. Le Pen inherited 31% of Fillion’s, 3% of Hamon’s and 12% of Melenchon’s voters.

EUR and European stock markets have strengthened as markets expect Macron to win the final vote. This is based on Macron’s large lead of at least 20 points in the major polls after the first round of the election.

During the early European session today EUR/USD hit a high of 1.0989, last seen November 9 of 2016 and EUR/JPY hit a high of 123.66, last seen on January 9. On Thursday, the France’s CAC 40 index hit a 2-week high of 5384.96. The DAX index also hit a record high of 12657.16

During a TV debate on May 3, Le Pen condemned Macron’s policies with a lack of national security enhancement. He is regarded as being soft toward terrorism and beholden to large business interests. She claims that she will expel foreigners on a terrorist watch list.

If Macron wins, it will likely push EUR and European stocks further up. Conversely, if Le Pen wins, it will trigger risk-off sentiment and market concerns over the collapse of the EU, which will result in a slump in EUR and European stocks, causing a rebound in gold and silver prices.

Be aware that, the result will likely cause big volatility in the market. Market prices will likely open with big gaps, which will result in stop losses being triggered with market prices instead of pre-set prices during early Asian session on Monday May 8.

The crucial US labour market data for April will be released this afternoon, at 13:30 BST. It includes non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Please note that the release of US labour market data will likely cause volatility for USD, USD crosses and commodities.

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