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Devata Tseng

Will US Q1 GDP Growth Show a Slowdown ?

There are two crucial GDP figures to be released today; UK Q1 GDP initial reading will be released at 09:30 BST, followed by the US Q1 GDP annualized initial reading, Q1 PCE and Q1 core PCE inflation figures (QoQ) at 13:30 BST. This will be the first US GDP figure reported after Trump took office. Presently the US economic condition remain sound - whereas, per the Q4 GDP annualized final reading, we saw a 2.1% growth showing a slowdown compared to a 3.5% growth in Q3. Market expectations for ...

Devata Tseng

Trump’s Tax Reform Plan Could Lead To Rising Deficit

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced Trump’s tax reform plan in a press conference yesterday; the biggest tax reform plan since 1986. Trump has proposed slashing corporate tax from the current rate of 35% to 15%; from one of the highest in the world to one of the lowest. In terms of personal income tax, the current 7 tax bands (minimum 10%, maximum 39.6%) is to be simplified to 3 bands instead (10%,25%,35%). Trump has also called for a repeal of the 3.8% tax on investment income and death ...

Devata Tseng

Corporate Earnings Lift US Stocks Ahead of Trump’s Tax Reform Plan

Last week the US President Trump stated on twitter that he will "unveil his major tax reform plan on Wednesday April 26". Trump intends to dramatically cut corporate tax from the current rate of 35% to 15%, and will likely also make tax cut or tax exemption on US corporate overseas earnings. In terms of personal income tax, the current 7 tax bands (minimum 10%, maximum 39.6%) will likely be simplified to 3 bands instead (12%,25%,33%). After the failure of his healthcare bill proposal on March ...

Devata Tseng

Global Equities Up, Oil & Yen Weaken

Following the somewhat centrist victory in the first round of the French Presidential Elections global markets appear to be have gained some risk appetite back with Asian equities reaching a near 2 year high on Tuesday. The election also helped lift EUR and put downward pressure on safe-haven instruments. It is therefore likely that European equities will have a strong start this morning. French Polls show Emmanuel Macron defeating anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen by as much as 30 ...

Devata Tseng

Market Concerns Eased After Macron’s First Round Victory

The first-round voting of the French presidential election was revealed on Sunday night April 23. The two top candidates: independent centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen, won 23.7% and 21.7% of votes respectively. Fillion and the far-left wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon both got around 19% of votes. The result was in line with expectations, black swans didn’t appear. The terror attack that occurred on April 20 in Paris was likely to give Le Pen one last push just a few days ahead of the ...

Devata Tseng

All Eyes on the First-Round Voting of the French Election

The first round of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday, April 23rd. The market consensus for the first-round of the election is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen will both capture enough votes to proceed to the second round, but this is very much still a four-horse race. Recent polls have shown there is still the possibility that the far-left wing Mélenchon could be a contender and make it into the final two, though vastly different from Le Pen, his ...

Devata Tseng

France’s and EU Future, Far-Right ? Far-Left ?

After recent news and market headlines were dominated by the UK snap general election announcement, the markets are now turning their attention towards the upcoming French presidential election. The outcome of the French presidential election will most likely result in heightened volatility for the Euro and European stock markets which look likely to be most affected by the introduction of the far-right candidate Marie Le Pen. The first round of the French election will be held this Sunday ...

Devata Tseng

Snap General Election Breathes Life into the Pound

Yesterday morning, the UK Prime Minister Theresa May kick started a day of GBP volatility after her shock decision to call a snap general election for June 10th. Although the Conservative Party currently holds the majority in parliament, recent polling numbers have suggested that they will increase this majority in the general election. With some political parties, still against Brexit and a cloud of doubt surrounding the kind of deal the UK will reach with the EU, a larger majority will help ...

Devata Tseng

Investors Turn to Safe Havens on Rising Regional Tensions

Recent US military actions, such as the airstrike in Syria, the movement of an aircraft carrier strike group toward the Korean Peninsula and the dropping of “the mother of all bombs” on ISIS in Afghanistan has led to rising tensions amongst some of the world superpowers. The rising regional tensions have lifted the markets’ risk aversion sentiment. Investors are turning away from riskier assets towards safe havens, resulting in the weakening of US equity markets. Monday April 17, saw spot gold ...