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Devata Tseng

Dollar Strengthens as Yellen Turns Hawkish

Janet Yellen’s statement in Jackson Hole last Friday has led to a dramatic move in the dollar. The dollar index reached the biggest intra-day rally of 1.48% since 24th June. The dollar surged as Yellen said ‘the economy is nearing the Fed's goals of full employment and stable prices. In light of the continued solid performance of the labour market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation. I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.’ ...

Devata Tseng

Will Yellen Remain Dovish ?

Today, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will make a speech at 14:00 GMT. In addition, the US Q2 GDP Growth second estimate (QoQ) annualized figure, and Goods Trade Balance for July, to be released at 12:30 GMT. The advance estimate of the US Q2 GDP (QoQ) released on 29th July was 1.2%, less than half of the expectations of 2.6%. The dollar index fell 1.41%, which has been the biggest intra-day fall in two and a half months. The Goods Trade deficit rose to -$63.30 bln in June, from -$60.59 bln in May. ...

Devata Tseng

Market Looking to Data and Yellen for Clues

Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, will make a speech at 14:00 GMT on Friday 26th August, which will influence the market sentiment and the strength of the dollar. Today we get a series of economic figures out of the US. Initial Jobless Claims (the week ended 19th Aug), Durable Goods Orders (MoM) for July, and Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) for July, to be released at 12:30 GMT. Services PMI and Composite PMI, at 13:45 GMT. Since FOMC’s dovish statement on last Wed 17th Aug, the New York Fed President ...

Devata Tseng

Sterling Breaks Major Resistance

GBPUSD hit a 2-week high of 1.3210 on Tuesday 23rd, from the low of 1.3033 on 22nd Aug, a 1.36% rise. Yet it pulled back as 1.3200 is a major resistance level. It rebounded this morning after tested the support level at 1.3160, also because the dollar is currently pulling back after a rally helped by the US New Home Sales figures. The 4 hourly KD of the dollar index is at a high level, suggesting a pullback, therefore, GBPUSD rallies this morning and broke the resistance level at 1.3200 as a ...

Devata Tseng

Dollar Choppy on Fed’s Conflicting Comments

The recent moves of the dollar seem to be a bit irrational as a result of conflicting comments from Fed members. The dollar index rebounded on 18th Aug, the next day broke the upside downtrend channel resistance at 94.49, helped by the hawkish comments from New York Fed president Dudley and the San Francisco Fed president Williams, after hitting a low of 94.03, where near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 94.06. This is after the more dovish stance taken by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen in ...

Devata Tseng

Can PMI put EURUSD and DAX Rally back on Course ?

German and Eurozone Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs for Aug, will be released at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT+1 on Tue 23rd Aug. Although the German Manufacturing PMI in July fell slightly to 53.8, from 54.5 in June, it was the strongest expansion in the past four and a half years. In addition, output grew at the fastest pace since Apr 2014, helped by increased demand and the processing of inventories. Input costs rose for the first time in a year. German Services PMI rose to 54.4 in July, ...

Devata Tseng

Will a Retracement in the Price of Oil lead to a USDCAD Rebound?

Today a series of Canadian economic data will be released at 13:30 GMT+1, including Retail Sales (MoM) for June, Core Retail Sales (MoM) for June, CPI (YoY and MoM) for July and Bank of Canada Core CPI (YoY and MoM) for July. The YoY CPI and Bank of Canada YoY Core CPI rose by 1.5% and 2.1% in June respectively. The Bank of Canada MoM Core CPI in June showed no growth. The MoM Retail Sales in May rose by 0.2%, from 0.9% in April, the MoM Core Retail Sales in May, rose by 0.9%, from 1.3% in ...

Devata Tseng

Dovish Fed Weakens Dollar

The minutes for the FOMC meeting, released yesterday, resulted in the dollar weakening across the board. The Fed’s objectives are to maintain price stability and maximise employment. Despite the robust growth in the job market in June and July, household spending and business investment remains weak. Inflation is still below the Fed’s 2% target, due to the earlier drop in energy prices and lower prices for imported goods. Exports have declined as foreign demand subdued. The global economy has ...

Devata Tseng

Dollar Rebounds after Hitting the Post Referendum Low

The Dollar Index Future (DXY) Despite the US labour market showing robust growth for two months, the appallingly low Q2 GDP and retail sales figures imply that economic growth and inflation rise are still weak. On Tue 16th Aug, the dollar index future (September) extended the weakness it has shown since Friday. A result of the disappointing retail sales report, the lowered market expectations for a Fed rate hike, and the dovish statement made by John Williams, the president of San Francisco ...