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The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: UK Inflation at 5-Year High

The likelihood of a rise in UK interest rates, for the first time in a decade, gained momentum on Tuesday as UK CPI edged up from 2.9% to 3.0% - its highest level since April 2012. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney did nothing to dispel a rate hike as he gave evidence to the UK Treasury select committee where he stated that the fall in the value of GBP, since the Brexit vote last year, has resulted in higher prices paid for imported goods which will take up to three years to “work its way ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Iraqi Tensions Impact Oil Prices

On Monday, Iraqi forces moved to take control of the city of Kirkuk that had been under control of a Kurdish faction since 2014 and had recently voted for independence in a referendum with Baghdad objections. Kirkuk is home to over 10% of Iraq’s oil reserves and the “takeover” brought concerns to the markets regarding supply disruptions, which helped pushed WTI up to a 3-week high before retracing overnight. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of their October 3rd meeting ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: US Inflation Disappoints

On Friday, US Consumer Price Index data was released and failed to impress the markets. With US gasoline prices spiking, following the disruption caused by the recent Hurricanes, consumer prices rose the most in eight months to 1.6% in September – coming up short of the forecast of 1.7%. Additionally, annualized inflation missed its forecast of 2.3%, coming in at 2.2%. To add to the Fed’s woes was the release of average weekly earnings easing to 0.6% from 1.0% on a yearly basis. The markets’ ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: U.S. Consumer Inflation Data Disappoints

Once again, the U.S. consumer inflation data came as disappointing. Yesterday’s strong PPI raised hopes for a strong CPI release today, yet inflation acceleration did not live up to expectations. The total annual inflation rate rose from 1.9% to 2.2%. Against expectations of reaching 1.8% and still below Fed’s target of 2%, the core figure remained at 1.7% YoY. Retail sales also turned out weaker than expected. Today’s numbers create a picture of slower growth in consumer activity, the ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Can CPI Follow PPI’s Lead?

In early Friday trading, the markets are relatively static as they wait, in anticipation, for today’s US inflation data that will potentially give confirmation that the FOMC will hike interest rates in December. According to the latest CME FedWatch tool, there is an 88% probability of a rate hike in December. Thursday's release of US PPI for September showed producers experiencing a 0.4% increase, in line with expectations, after a 0.2% increase in August. With producers experiencing ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Fed Minutes: The Inflation Conundrum

USD broadly declined as the markets digested the release of last month’s FOMC meeting minutes. Many FOMC Members are still concerned with persistently low inflation, which is perplexing many as the US experiences a strong labour force, low unemployment, an increase in average hourly earnings and falling Jobless Claims, which should create inflationary pressure – but has had little effect to date. However, the minutes showed most policymakers believe another rate hike later this year “was ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Japan turns into the biggest crypto hub. Is Russia following its own path?

Russian president Vladimir Putin warned of “serious risks” accompanying cryptocurrencies during his speech at a government meeting in Sochi yesterday, becoming the first global leader of such high profile to publicly express his fears about cryptocurrencies and the way in which the surrounding anonymity may support or serve in money laundering, terrorism financing and tax evasion. However, and unlike the recent developments in China, he urged the Bank of Russia to focus more on the regulation ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Politics Influence Markets

With fears abating surrounding the threat of Catalan independence, the EUR moved higher overnight. Catalan President Puigdemont stated that, although the October 1st referendum had given him the mandate to pursue independence, he would “suspend” the result for a period of a few weeks whilst he has discussions with Spain’s Prime Minister Rajoy’s administration. He commented that the greater European Union should be involved in any discussions as he tries to reassure many Catalan based companies ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: US Unemployment at Lowest Level Since 2001

On Friday, the US Department of Labour released Nonfarm Payrolls for September. The meagre forecast of 88K was beaten with an even worse release of -33K, showing the US lost 33K jobs from the previous release. This is the first negative NFP since September 2010, as the recent Hurricanes impacted jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector. With the rebuilding effort fully underway, the markets expect NFP to increase in the coming months as workers are hired with businesses reopening and tourism ...