feedback
FxProUpdates

The week of reckoning

Moving into December, it’s usually the time when markets start winding down for Christmas. As it is, there are two key events that will shape the month, the first of which arrives this week in the form of the ECB meeting on Thursday. The anticipated policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed has been a key driver on EURUSD since the middle of October, since when the dynamics on respective 2Y interest rates (which embody short-term rate expectations) have been moving firmly in favour of the ...

FxProUpdates

More China Wobbles

We’ve seen a nervous session in Asia as stocks in China were hit over fresh fears of the stability of the financial sector (more clamp downs from the regulator), the Shanghai composite down more than 5%. The yuan was also weaker, USDCNY moving up to the 6.3950 area. The impact on FX was mainly on the yen, with USDJPY moving below 122.40. Still, with the US Thanksgiving holiday yesterday also likely to keep volumes on the light side today, then overall ranges have been comparatively narrow. The ...

FxProUpdates

Investors dissipate for Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is seen by many as the beginning of the festive season and yesterday it was clear from the volumes that many investors were already preparing for the shortened trading week with many US markets closed today and not reopening fully until next Monday. With such thin volumes across all asset classes we could see some quite sharp moves and whilst European indices are set to open flat this morning, the FTSE 100’s mining sector might benefit from a rebound in metal prices on the back of ...

FxProUpdates

Aussie benefits from dollar pause

Volatility remains subdued during this quiet trading week and yesterday was an example of how disengaged investors are at this moment in time. Better than expected US GDP and Case-Shiller House Price data balanced out the bad consumer confidence and slightly worse numbers on Monday leading to a little profit taking in the dollar, but the wider picture in respect to interest rates and the next FOMC meeting remains unchanged. With US Thanksgiving tomorrow and the shortened trading week, already ...

FxProUpdates

Caution reigns

Investors remain cautious during this shortened trading week for the US markets as we near Thanksgiving celebrations and a week that is usually known for low trading volumes. Whilst this marks the build up to the festive season, markets are still shrouded by concerns over security in some of Europe’s major cities and at the same time focus remains on US data which disappointed a little yesterday with a lower than expected manufacturing PMI and new home sales. Meanwhile US Treasury 2 year yields ...

FxProUpdates

Commodity concerns

This week commences on a soft note for European indices following a good month that saw the best weekly performance from global stocks in just over a month. Increased security tensions across Europe and a continued downward spiral of commodity prices means we’re going to see a softer open for equity markets this morning and sentiment is likely to be tested further with a very quiet week ahead on both the economic and corporate data front, culminating in the two day Thanksgiving celebrations in ...

FxProUpdates

Mixed commodity currencies

It’s going to be a quiet end to the week with a rather bare economic calendar today. As a result markets are calm going into the week end following a quiet Asian session overnight that had a positive bias to it. Investors seem to be more accepting of a possible Fed rate hike next month but for now the dollar’s strength has been put on pause, in particular against the Aussie which is testing 0.7200 at the time of writing and continues to hold above the 0.7000 level, but the major support in ...

FxProUpdates

Creeping towards a December hike

The minutes to the end of October Fed meeting, released last night, did not have a major market impact, but did reveal some fairly detailed discussion about the language to be used in the statement and the extent to which it should lead market thinking into a December move. The dollar wobbled, but was net-net little changed. In the bigger picture, the one thing the Fed has stressed is the nature of the tightening cycle and moving this more towards the market thinking in their projections. What ...

FxProUpdates

Last FOMC minutes before hike?

Market expectations for the Fed to commence its rate tightening cycle next month are around 66% now and although this does not mean it’s certain that they will move on 16th December the feeling is that the chances are far higher than they were in the run up to the September meeting. The dollar has been on the bid since the middle of October benefiting most from weakness in the euro which is hovering some 200 pips above its April lows, where a break below 1.0460 would see levels not seen for ...