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Stumbling into month end

The dollar is staging a fight-back into the end of the month and especially against the yen. USDJPY is back above the 102.00 level, with the Aussie taking a hit as well. The biggest move has been on EURUSD, pushing briefly above the 1.38 level after the CPI data, but the momentum above this level appears to be waning.

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EUR holding higher levels

The single currency holding the higher levels after the stronger than expected CPI data for February, which came out at 0.8%. The core rate also increased to 1.0% (from 0.8%). EUR was briefly above the 1.38 level, with the data placing some more uncertainty around the ECB decision next week.

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Focusing on inflation

We are entering the last trading day of the month after what has already been a fairly choppy week for FX. Markets have been coping with the dual risks of China and also events in the Ukraine. The effects have been felt across a range of currencies, with EURCHF near 10 month lows, the yen strengthening and the Aussie under modest pressure. There have been two points of interest overnight. The first has been stronger production data in Japan, together with slightly softer inflation data, ...

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FX nervous ahead of Yellen

USDJPY and cable pushing higher after US data, cable above 1.6650 and USDJPY above 102.00. Market nervous ahead of Yellen at 15:00 GMT. Claims data higher than expected, with durable goods the usual mixed bag.

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Remaining choppy

The focus is back on the dollar today as Fed Chair Yellen testifies to the Senate on monetary policy, an event delayed from earlier in the month owing to the weather. This does mean that it’s going to catch more attention that would have otherwise have been the case, given that we have seen a fair amount of data and events since her testimony on 11th February. The dollar remains lower overall from that date, but has managed to recover from the mid-month lows and especially yesterday, with ...

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Dollar still choppy

USD choppy across the board ahead and after US some sales data (stronger at 9.6% MoM). EURUSD dn 45 pips to 1.3675, Cable 1.6645, JPY 102.20. The reaction to data today and yesterday have underlined just how troublesome FX markets have been over the past couple of weeks, complicated by the impact of weather on US data together with the uncertainty regarding events in China.

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UK GDP in line

UK GDP left un-revised in the final quarter at 0.7% QoQ. Private consumption was softer at 0.4% QoQ, but net trade was better, with exports rising and imports falling. Sterling was initially higher towards 1.6700 and currently finding buyers on the dips.

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Trading uncertainty

There’s no denying that the price action on FX this week has been erratic. The volatility seen on the dollar in the wake of the weaker than expected consumer confidence data illustrated this yesterday. The dollar initially strengthened, especially vs. sterling and the euro, but quickly turned around within the hour. The undercurrents from China have been a factor in creating more uncertainty, with stronger parallels between what is happening in China now in terms of credit, compared to the US ...

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Dollar recovery

The dollar is fighting back after the recent softer tone, despite the weaker than expected consumer confidence data from the US, which fell to 78.1 (from revised 79.4). Both the euro and sterling have proven to be the most vulnerable, down 0.3% over the past half hour. The moves are probably more reflective of low underlying liquidity rather than a fundamental re-assessment on the part of the dollar, which has been finding decent support around the 80 level on teh dollar index (currently ...