feedback
FxProTV

Weekly Briefing 25 – 29 November

FxProTV

Weekly Briefing 18 – 22 November

FxProUpdates

Why the euro will do well

Not for the first time, the market is in need of a re-think on the single currency. I alluded to this at the start of the week (see “The euro dilemma”) for two reasons. Firstly, the backdrop was becoming less negative for the currency. Secondly, as we suggested ahead of the move, a cut in the refinancing rate was the least effective option available to the ECB. The fact that the refinancing rate was cut to 0.25% barely matters for the currency, because what matters are market rates (swap, ...

FxProUpdates

Failed forward guidance

Without forward guidance, this would have been a very ‘dovish’ Inflation Report from the Bank of England, but we are now dealing with a central bank with two key policy pillars (CPI and unemployment) and markets have focused strongly on the latter. As such, the Bank has shot itself in the foot. The near-term inflation forecast has been revised down “significantly” versus that published in August and on the 2 year horizon (using market rates), inflation is seen below target in 2 years, vs the ...

FxProTV

Weekly Briefing 11-15 November

FxProUpdates

The euro dilemma

Data/Event Risks FX: Vetrans day holiday in the US will keep activity subdued today, with data releases scheduled for the Eurozone (Italy production) not likely to add to volatility. Main focus this week is with sterling on Wednesday, with expectations of upward revision to growth and employment forecasts. Idea of the Day The Vetrans day holiday in the US will keep volatility on the low side today. In the background, there is the issue of policy divergence between the US and Eurozone. The US ...

Charalambos Psimolophitis

Retail Forex Comes of Age.

The rate at which the retail Forex market continues to grow is nothing short of astounding, even for us who have been invested in its growth for so long. In 2007, when FxPro was granted a CySEC licence, retail Forex accounted for around 5% of foreign exchange volume. In 2010, when we received FSA authorisation, this figure had risen to 10%, and by the time we were awarded a full FSA license in 2012, it had almost doubled to 18%. Now in 2013 we’re talking about figures of around 20%. Such growth ...

FxProUpdates

Flimsy Forward Guidance

Forward guidance is unravelling for the major central banks in different ways. The approach of a single target (inflation) with a single tool (interest rates) is long gone. Instead, we are left with an array of targets, goals, thresholds, commitments and caveats, which is proving too much for central banks to successfully manage. Furthermore, no target is perfect and trying to achieve it can create more problems than it solves. The US was the first, introducing forward guidance early on in the ...

FxProTV

21-25 Oct Weekly Brief