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FxProUpdates

Does the dollar care?

The US is on the cusp of a government shut-down and imminent breach of the debt ceiling, yet the US dollar seems largely ambivalent. There are 3 reasons why the dollar appears not to care at this point in time, but also signs that this ambivalence is changing. The first reason is that the dollar is more a global currency than a domestic one. Now you would not think this around the time of the monthly payrolls release or the Fed decisions, given the ensuing volatility. But it remains the global ...

FxProTV

30 Sep | FxPro Weekly Briefing

FxProTV

23-27 September Weekly Brief

FxProUpdates

Fed perspective

It feels as if FX markets have been in a state of paralysis for the past 3 months, fixated on the potential for Fed tapering of its monthly asset purchases (tapering). Think back to early July and it’s clear that something has gone astray. Back then, the tapering talk was gathering pace. At the same time, both the Bank of England and European Central Bank pushed back against the rise in market interest rates, the BoE mentioning the change in expectations in their statement (which caused market ...

FxProTV

16 Sep | FxPro Weekly FX Briefing

FxProUpdates

Good times over for gold

Unless something pretty miraculous happens in the next four months, gold will have its first down year (in dollar terms) for 13 years. Why has it had such a tough time? Firstly, real interest rates have been rising globally over the past 6 months. Being a non-yielding asset, the opportunity cost of holding it is less when returns are low elsewhere. Our measure of global real interest rates (10 year bonds minus inflation) was negative late last year and in early 2013, but has since been rising ...