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FxProUpdates

Sterling in 2014 – good and bad

The story of sterling is familiar to all, namely one of continued disappointment on growth (lower) and inflation (higher) weighing on its shoulders. This started to turn in the twilight of Mervyn King’s tenure at the Bank of England, with growth for the year seen around 1.5% (expectation was for 0.8% back in May). The currency has naturally responded in kind, the strongest performer on the majors in H2. This has happened despite the Bank’s attempt at forward guidance, offering assurance to ...

FxProTV

FxPro Week Ahead

Charalambos Psimolophitis

Towards a New Asset Class.

Since the technology came of age in the mid-1990s, making online Forex trading feasible for retail investors, there has been a tug of war between brokerages regarding what shape this market should take. The past decade or so has seen it assume many guises. We have witnessed the Wild West days of little or no regulation, the move towards legitimising the industry under all the relevant authorities, and now the latest step on this journey in which certain segments of the industry are finally ...

FxProUpdates

The euro – defying expectations

Leaving aside events in Cyprus earlier in the year, this was the first year since the Greek bailout in 2010 that the single currency was not jumping from crisis to crisis. In the background, Draghi’s infamous pledge to do “whatever it takes” in the summer of 2012 (backed up with the OMT programme) provided a strong structural support to the euro. It meant that the market could move on from obsessing about Italian and Spanish bond yields. The extent to which structural problems are being solved ...

FxProUpdates

A look into 2014

It’s worth putting into context the environment in which FX finds itself at the end of 2013. If there is one rule that works for FX, it is that no rule lasts forever (if that can be a rule!). FX is simply money, so the rate of return on money and hence central bank expectations remain integral. You only have to look at how tapering has entered the mainstream market lexicon to appreciate that; not only for FX but for pretty much every other market besides. But within this, there has been a big ...

FxProTV

Weekly Briefing 09 – 13 December

FxProTV

Weekly Briefing 25 – 29 November

FxProTV

Weekly Briefing 18 – 22 November

FxProUpdates

Why the euro will do well

Not for the first time, the market is in need of a re-think on the single currency. I alluded to this at the start of the week (see “The euro dilemma”) for two reasons. Firstly, the backdrop was becoming less negative for the currency. Secondly, as we suggested ahead of the move, a cut in the refinancing rate was the least effective option available to the ECB. The fact that the refinancing rate was cut to 0.25% barely matters for the currency, because what matters are market rates (swap, ...