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(Русский) USD/CHF развернулась от области сопротивления

Simon Smith

The pressure on Canada

The price action on the yen is indicative of a currency that has changed course. After yesterday’s substantial bout of yen appreciation, we’ve seen more gains overnight, this despite the holiday in Japan today. This puts USDJPY at levels last see 18 months ago, having moved below the 107.00 level into the European open. Many started the year bearish on the yen, on the basis of policy divergence, so sentiment amongst longer-term players is now starting to shift, which will be a difficult barrier ...

Simon Smith

Being Haruhiko Kuroda

Someone, somewhere must be thinking of a film titled “Being Haruhiko Kuroda”. The crux of it will be a central bank governor who brings in easing measures and sees the currency rise (within 3 days to be exact). He also sees the currency rise when he does nothing. The yen is up over 3% against the US dollar in the wake of the BoJ’s non-decision on policy. This is a substantial move, firstly in light of the split in the market on whether the BoJ was going to introduce new measures. Secondly, just ...

Simon Smith

Central Bank Avenue Approaching

The Fed meeting today takes centre stage in the minds of the market, with everything else taking second place. That said, there is no real basis for the Fed in raising the rhetoric towards a further tightening given the run of data and events since the last meeting. For most of April, data has been falling to the softer side of expectations, with the US 2 year yield and dollar both weaker vs. the levels seen at the March meeting. As such, we’re likely to get only minor adjustments to the ...

Simon Smith

The Upward Pull on the Dollar

The interest rate markets are exerting a downward pull on EURUSD, which for the moment it’s doing its best to resist. US interest rate at the short end have been rising of late (2Y up 13bp past two weeks), but the dollar has been reticent to react in a meaningful way. The Fed meeting later this week may change that, but for choice, the Fed are unlikely to want to encourage a firmer currency at this point in time. The current ambivalence of the dollar is also apparent on cable, which touched the ...

Simon Smith

From Unconventional to Bizarre

We’re in what can only be described as a slightly messy phase in currency markets at present. Those currencies that were seemingly a one-way bet have seen some fairly sharp reversals. The yen is the most obvious of these, after Friday’s speculation (Bloomberg, subsequently denied by BoJ) that the central bank is considering offering negative rates on loans. This saw the biggest one day up-move on USDJPY since the end of January, when the BoJ announced its surprise negative rates policy (on ...

Simon Smith

Another Draghi Roller-Coaster

It was the exception, rather than the rule, that the volatility in the euro yesterday was more down to market positioning that the changing messages through Draghi’s press conference. There were residual expectations for further easing measures, so the initial rally was more to do with covering of short positions. Thereafter, the underlying tone was indicative of a central bank wanting to see how current policies impact the economy but also pushing back against criticism from some member states ...

Simon Smith

Launching the Euro Chopper?

Having supposedly thrown everything at the deflationary problem at their early March meeting, there is little expectation that the ECB is going to have anything substantial at today’s gathering to present to markets. Instead, we’re likely to get a PR job on the signs that the stimulus policies seen over the past year are having an effect. So far, that’s not really been evident in the inflation numbers or the real economy. The latest credit conditions survey from the ECB showed some signs of ...

FxProUpdates

FxPro Calculators Update

We are pleased to inform you that the FxPro Pip Value Calculator, Swap Calculator and Margin Calculator have all been updated and can now be used to generate results for trading forex, metals and energies quickly and easily. More particularly, and as well as calculating results for trading currency pairs, you can now use the three updated calculators when trading GOLD and SILVER, as well as BRENT, WTI and NAT.GAS. Doing so can help with more effective risk management and allow you to modify the ...