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Alexander Kuptsikevich

Forex: U.S. Growth Demand More Important Than OPEC’s Crude Oil Reductions

Crude reached higher highs in the first ten days of November than it had in more than two years, then experiencing a correction of roughly 5%. After that, both Brent and WTI went into recovery mode. Yet, while the European oil benchmark recovered half the correction to reach $63 per barrel approx., the U.S. benchmark has moved beyond previous peaks, rising to 58.37 since last Tuesday. The bulk of oil in Europe and Asia comes from the members of “OPEC Plus”, including Russia and nearly a dozen ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Positive Economic Data for the Eurozone and UK

Data released on Thursday from Markit Economics showed eurozone’s thriving economy powered ahead in November, with new manufacturing orders reaching 17-year highs and a resilient labour market that has shown steady growth. The data suggests that eurozone businesses experienced their best month in almost 7 years, with the main indicators of demand, output, employment and inflation at multi-year highs. The data signals that Q4 GDP growth is likely to surpass expectations, with an annualized ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: UK Growth Forecast Lowered – GBP Strengthens

UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond delivered an Autumn Budget that appeared to be somewhat neutral in its content. More sobering was the updated forecast of UK economic growth, which is growing slower than previously thought. Hammond said productivity levels remained "stubbornly flat", with growth until 2021 expected to be lower than predicted in March. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is now predicting the UK economy will grow by 1.5% this year – considerably lower than the 2% forecast ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Can the UK Budget Help PM May?

Today sees the release of the UK’s Autumn Budget with the markets believing this financial statement is critical for Prime Minister Theresa Mays’ survival. Following the very narrow victory she had in the recent General Election, this Budget could provide May with an opportunity for redemption from voters. The Prime Minister is treading water as she deals with conflicts within her own cabinet and talks of a rebellion within her own party to oust her. However, whilst Prime Minister May is under ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Political Turmoil in Germany Hurts EUR

The EUR lost ground against many of its peers on Monday on news that Chancellor Angel Merkel’s efforts to form a coalition government had collapsed, which could result in Germany having to call snap elections. With no viable government coalition, it seems highly likely that Germany will be forced to hold new elections. For the past month, Merkel had been in negotiations with the pro-business FDP and their leader Christian Linder. However, sources close to the negotiations stated that Lindner ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Draghi: “Eurozone economy is robust but…”

Speaking at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, ECB President Mario Draghi, commented that "although the eurozone economy was robust" recovery was still heavily reliant on stimulus from the European Central Bank. He stated that positive economic growth alone was not enough to allow the ECB to increase the pace of monetary policy normalization. The current lackluster inflation growth is causing withdrawal of stimulus to be slow. He commented that "Despite this progress on the real side of ...

Alexander Kuptsikevich

Forex: Ruble Gains as Oil Falls: The Correlation is Reversed

Yesterday, the ruble managed to keep resistance levels at 60.50 for USDRUB. During the day, the currency pair lost 0.9%, down to 59.68, as oil fell by 1.3% to $61.10 per barrel (Brent). This could be viewed as a clear sign of the Russian currency’s strength, as its movements occurred alongside a decline in oil price. The ruble was seen to decisively lose its dependence on the short-term dynamics of Crude. Essentially, what we saw yesterday was a repeat of the trend observed over the last few ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: USD Suffers on Subpoena News

The Trump Administration is back in the spotlight with news of a report that Special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigators have issued a subpoena to more than 12 officials in the Trump administration election campaign for documents related to Russia. According to the Wall Street Journal; Mueller’s team issued the subpoena in mid-October, requesting documents and emails from more than a dozen campaign officials that include several keywords related to Russia. The subpoena does not compel ...

The FxPro Analyst Team

Forex: Positive US Data Negated by Tax Plan Opposition

The US Labor Department released data on Wednesday showing the consumer price index edged up by 0.1% in October after climbing by 0.5% in September. The modest increase in consumer prices was in line with market expectations. CPI excluding food and energy prices climbed by 0.2% in October after inching up by 0.1% in the previous month – as expected by the markets. The US Commerce Department released data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.2% in October after spiking by an upwardly revised ...