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Devata Tseng

Cautious EURUSD Ahead of ECB Press Conference

USD, and the US government bond yields, surged last night following Fed president Janet Yellen’s speech to the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. Yellen stated that the US is approaching full employment. The US employment rate is less than 5% - near the level before the recession. In terms of inflation, although it has remained below the Fed’s 2% target, yet it is approaching this target. More importantly, she said a few times a year would be an appropriate pace for rate hikes, and the ...

Devata Tseng

GBPUSD Retreats Post Surge on Theresa May’s Hard Brexit Speech

Trump stated on Tuesday that a strong dollar is risky to the US economy, as it weakens competitiveness of US exports and corporate profits. A senior adviser to Trump also warned that a strong dollar could make it difficult for Trump to implement his policies and revitalize the US economy. The comments drove the dollar index 1.27% on Tuesday, plunging to the lowest level of 100.23 since 8th December. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May made a speech about Brexit on Tuesday. She said the UK will be ...

Devata Tseng

Sterling Struggles Ahead of Theresa May’s Speech

Theresa May will make a speech outlining her plans for Brexit tomorrow, Tuesday 17th Jan, before the UK triggers Article 50 to leave the EU. The key points of her speech will include immigration control & leaving the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. On Sunday 15th Jan, the Sunday Telegraph reported that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is heading for a hard Brexit and will pull the UK out of the EU single market and custom union. Sterling fell to a three-month low this morning, ...

Devata Tseng

USDJPY turns Consolidation towards Downtrend?

The strong bullish momentum of USDJPY post the US presidential election has waned since mid-December, a consolidation pattern has been formed thereafter. On 5th Jan, a long bearish candle broke the near term major support level at 116.00 on the daily time frame. On 12th Jan, the next major support line at 115.00 was further broken, as a result of the plunge of the dollar after Trump’s press conference. The current price holds above the next significant support line at 114.00. On the daily ...

Devata Tseng

Dollar Turn-around on Trump’s Press Conference

President Elect Trump’s first press conference after his victory in the US presidential election, was held yesterday around at 16:00 GMT. It has caused great volatility to the dollar and the markets. Before the start of the press conference, the dollar index surged from a support line at 102.00, testing the resistance at 103.00, reaching the intra-day high of 102.955. Nevertheless, as soon as Trump’s statement started, a sell-off of the dollar has been triggered. Trump talked about Russia’s ...

Devata Tseng

Gold Nears Major Resistance Ahead of Trump’s Press Conference

Gold prices have rebounded since mid-Dec after testing the significant support line at 1120. On the 4 hourly chart, gold bullish momentum has been strengthened since the beginning of this year, helped by the dollar retracement. Gold spot has been trading along the downside uptrend line support year to date, breaking the two near term major resistances at 1160 and 1180 respectively. Yet gold spot is currently trading below the 50 SMA at 1990.88 on the daily time frame. In addition, the price ...

Simon Smith

Searching for a new narrative

Popcorn at the read today as President elect Trump has a scheduled news conference later in the day (around 16:00 GMT). Markets have become used to listening to him in 140 characters or less over the recent weeks, so a more elongated narrative should be welcome. It’s pretty clear that the dollar strength has stalled, with the uptrend seen since the US election results waning on a technical basis. The week so far has seen some reversal of the recent weakness, but this has been within very narrow ...

Devata Tseng

GBPUSD Rebounds After Monday’s Weakening

GBPUSD has rebounded after testing the short term major support line at 1.2100, where provides a strong support. GBPUSD fell more than 1% after the interview between Sky News and the UK PM Theresa May about an inevitable hard Brexit and the implication of leaving the EU single market. GBPUSD hit the lowest level of 1.2106 since 25th Oct 2016. On the 4 hourly chart, currently GBPUSD is trading below the 10 SMA, where the resistance level at 1.2150 converges, the bullish attempt is likely to be ...

Simon Smith

The sterling conundrum

Yesterday’s early weakness in sterling, on the back of the latest comments from PM May surrounding Brexit, took cable close to key support levels and the resilience seen through most of the post US election period has been unwound. You can see that better illustrated on EURGBP, where we have seen all of the move down to near the 0.83 level unwound as the cross has pushed above 0.87 to pre-election levels. The conundrum is between the uncertainties created by Brexit, against the fact that ...