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Евгения Коновалова

(Русский) Напоминание от FxPro о том, что важно для нас

Devata Tseng

Technical Analysis : GBPUSD Tests Major Support

We got the UK Q2 GDP (YoY and QoQ) final readings this morning. The Q2 GDP YoY fell to 2.1%, compared to expectations of 2.2%, yet better than the previous figure of 1.9%. The Q2 GDP QoQ rose to 0.7%, better than the expectations and the previous figure of 0.6%. The marginal gain helped GBPUSD hold above the downside mid-term uptrend line support at 1.2950. The price is likely to hold or rebound at this level, as it provides a stronger support. Yet the selling pressure above the resistance ...

Simon Smith

Japan’s huge mountain

The moves we saw yesterday in the wake of the OPEC deal were instructive on the way the deal has the potential to change the landscape for markets. In many ways, this could be just the beginning. The implication a change in the demand/supply balance in the oil market is going to play into the hands of the producers and especially the US, where shale production has been under the kosh for the past two years. A sustained higher price will allow prior investments to reach fruition earlier and ...

Devata Tseng

Technical Analysis : USDCAD Tests Major Support after Deep Retracement. USDJPY Tests Major Resistance

USDCAD rallied yesterday with strong bullish momentum after Yellen’s hawkish testimony about a rate hike this year, testing the resistance level at 1.3280. Yet the rally was followed by a very deep retracement, as it was reported surprisingly that OPEC reaches an output freeze agreement as Saudi Arabia unexpectedly agrees to exclude Iran from the freeze. Canadian Dollar strengthened after the news was released. USDCAD gave up all the previous gains from 23rd onwards. The significant support ...

Simon Smith

OPEC blinks

Yesterday’s decision by OPEC to restrict oil supply has pushed the price of crude higher by some 5%. The move took the markets by surprise, with the divisions between Iran (who are still enjoying their return to global markets) and Saudi (who are cash-strapped) seen as too big to overcome at this point in time. This represents the first cut in production since way back in 2008, during the depths of the global financial crisis. No great surprise to see the currencies of the oil producers gaining ...

Devata Tseng

Technical Analysis : USDCAD Tests Major Resistance, Gold Fails to Break the Downtrend

USDCAD remains bullish, yet it has retraced since Tuesday 27th, after testing the major resistance at 1.3240. The selling pressure above this level is heavy, the bullish momentum is likely to be restrained at this level. The resistance level is at 1.3240, followed by 1.3280 and 1.3300. The support line is at 1.3200, followed by 1.3150 and 1.3130. Today we will get the US Durable Goods and Core Durable Goods Orders for August, to be released at 12:30 GMT today. With better-than-expected figures, ...

Simon Smith

Sagging Fed expectations

As discussed yesterday, markets will increasingly obsess about the US election over the coming few weeks, but beneath that the economy will determine if the Fed hikes interest rates before the year is out. After the last meeting, the chance of an increase in rates by year end was out over 60%, with that reading having now decreased to 50%. This shift in expectations has, in part, underpinned the weaker dollar seen over the past few sessions. For all the headlines about the election, the Fed is ...

Devata Tseng

Technical Analysis : OPEC Meeting Fails to Lift Oil Prices Above Resistance

The three day OPEC meeting took place from Monday 26th September, in Algeria, although the Algeria Energy Minister stated that output cuts or a freeze are both possible. In fact, there are still conflicts of interest between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran aims to reach the pre-sanction output and regain its previous market share. It will be difficult for the two major OPEC oil producers to reach an agreement. It will be more likely that nothing concrete will be achieved in the end. Fundamentally, ...

Simon Smith

The US election beta

Having obsessed about an event that did not happen this month (a Fed tightening), markets now turn to obsessing about an event that will happen, namely a change of US President. To this end, the first of three live TV debates last night caught the attention of markets and from here on in, we are going to have to get used to a higher beta to the ebb and flow of US politics over the next few weeks. Interestingly, for what it’s worth, the Mexican peso was stronger on the back of the tone of the ...