FxProTV

FxPro Currency Check 0730 26.02.2015

FxPro Currency Check 0730 26.02.2015

Simon Smith

Ray of (volatility) Light

With the dust having cleared from the Swiss franc move, the Greece situation having been resolved (at least for now) and twenty central banks having now eased policy so far this year, FX volatility has been falling in the past week, like a caped fallen Madonna from a Brits Award stage. The CB CVIX index (similar basis to equities VIX) is now back at levels prevailing around the middle of December last year. Still, there is a ray of light for some currencies. Sterling has been pushing ahead over ...

FxProTV

FxPro Currency Check 0730 25.02.2015

FxPro Currency Check 0730 25.02.2015

Simon Smith

Being patient for volatility

In the wake of Fed Chair Yellen's testimony yesterday, the algo and machine readable news programs will be set to buy the dollar when the word "patient" is removed from the Fed statement. Yellen stated that the removal of this word, which replaced the phrase "considerable time" for keeping the current rate that existed up to the December Fed meeting. In sum, the impact was to weaken the dollar, push stocks higher and delay future dollar volatility and gains. Stocks were also modestly firmer as ...

Angus Campbell

New record for FTSE 100

There we have it after a previous attempt in October 2007 and numerous efforts in 2014, fifteen years since the all-time high was recorded by the FTSE 100, today has seen the index close at levels that it has never seen before. The FTSE 100 has been lagging its peers but now it has finally cracked the nut. The fact that the US’s Dow Jones achieved this feat as far back as Q1 of 2013 and Germany’s Dax shortly after in the same year, shows just how far behind the UK’s benchmark has been when ...

Simon Smith

Waiting on Greece

Dollar yen moving higher this morning, as Greece waits for the Eurozone Finance Minister to offer their judgement on the reform proposals put to them overnight. This reflects on some generalised dollar strength being seen, which has also pushed the Aussie below the 0.7750 level. This is all happening ahead of Yellen's testimony later today, where markets are going to be very sensitive to any change in tone or further indication on the timing of the first rate hike from the Fed.

Simon Smith

It’s all about the rate

Today’s focus will be with Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in Washington. This happens every six months and is a key element of the Fed’s accountability to the US Administration. The dollar will be looking closely for further clarification of when the Fed may start tightening rates, having moved their forward guidance language from referencing “considerable period” to them being “patient”. But the Fed has struggled with such guidance and Yellen in particular, namely ...

FxProTV

FxPro Currency Check 0730 24.02.2015

FxPro Currency Check 0730 24.02.2015

Simon Smith

Not quite over for Greece

The deal on Greece put together during the latter stages of Friday gave the single currency a lift into the weekend; EURUSD moving up above the 1.14 level. That has struggled to be sustained though, as there are still doubts regarding the measures that Greece will commit to in order to secure the funding. They are due to put these to the Eurogroup today and if they are not accepted, then another meeting of finance ministers will take place tomorrow. On the face of it, Greece appears to have ...

FxProTV

FxPro Currency Check 0730 23.02.2015

FxPro Currency Check 0730 23.02.2015

Angus Campbell

Greece remains biggest determinant to EURUSD movement

The market continues to behave as if a resolution to the Greek issue is imminent and it would seem that investors remain confident that a Grexit is not going to happen. Despite the lack of an agreement to the extension of the existing bailout, EURUSD has held up relatively firmly and other risk assets such as equity indices remain near their all time highs. For the Eurozone as a whole, the economic outlook doesn’t look all that bad with business, confidence and manufacturing surveys remaining ...

FxProTV

FxPro Currency Check 0730 20.02.2015

FxPro Currency Check 0730 20.02.2015

FxProTV

FxPro Interview with TipTV – Quant upgrade, London Seminar & GBPUSD

Simon Smith

Dollar reversal

The minutes of the January FOMC meeting appears to show a committee looking to keep rates lower for longer. This took the market by surprise and put the dollar on the back-foot. This came in the wake of the latest labour market data, which also showed better data for earnings. The other thing that came from the minutes is that the Fed want to be convinced that the pace of activity is sustainable before raising rates. The final factor, less mentioned but cannot be ignored, is the fact that many ...

FxProTV

FxPro Currency Check 0730 19.02.2015

FxPro Currency Check 0730 19.02.2015

Angus Campbell

Kicking the Grexit can

The ECB has come to the rescue of Greek banks once again by increasing the cap on ELA from €65b to just over €68b. This does not resolve the problem of deposits being depleted as people continue to withdrawal funds from Greek banks and of course the wider issue of a new deal being negotiated to prevent a Grexit. Today it is expected that a six month extension to the existing bailout will be accepted today in order to give more time to negotiate a more permanent deal later in the year. It’s a ...